Should I Even Waste My Time Trading Now

One of the great aspects of the trading the stock market is that everybody has their own methods, ideas, and thinking. At the same time, there is no right way.

Some people buy and hold, others buy and trade within a few months, and then there are those that hold stocks for less than a day. Depending on your patience, dedication, and even stamina they can all be equally successful or just bad.

In a time of uncertainty (to an extent… we are all certain this market sucks), all of our trading methods get tested. Some turn out good and others have to fold it up and quit.

On average I hold a stock for a month to 3 months, but, in my opinion, this market is somewhat primed for day traders. Short here, there, everywhere, and eventually go long every so often. While it is hard to hold trends for longer than a couple days, it is pretty evident what a market will do on a day to day basis.

That being said, unless we are day traders, then should we really be wasting our time and capital trading?

A common trading ideology is to catch the trade somewhere within the range. In other words, don’t bother trying to find a bottom or top. If we classify the bottom and top as 15% each of a stock’s trend run, then we should aim to get in and out somewhere within that 15% – 85%.

What is a few extra points, right?

Back to the question: If this is the ideology we want, then should we even bother trading right now? For the most part, we are clearly somewhere between that bottom 0% – 15%.

Then again how do we differentiate ourselves between the bottom, middle, and top? What happens if we are just sitting on the sidelines waiting, and, just like that, we missed the run. While I am sure it won’t be that fast, I’m sure you get the idea.

Although we can make an educational guess/assumption of when is a good time to trade a stock, nobody really knows when it is that significant “middle range.”

Another common trading ideology is that once everybody starts to buy in you are already too late. If this is the case, then it is good to take that risk, right?

Once again we are reminded of the various methods to play the stock market. Are you the risk taker or are you the Buffet wannabe? Be what you are, until the stock market becomes a proven science all we have are our methods.

  • I think that everyone who trades or invests should have a system that they have complete faith and confidence in. If they have such a system, then they will know what to do at any point, in any type of market.

    For example, my trading system is long-term - with positions adjusted once a year. At the end of 2008, my formula gave me heavy buy signals on almost every position.

    Now, when I was developing my system years ago, I simulated market years that were very bad - even Depression like - where I would not have enough money to rebalance every position. I developed rules about finding the weakest positions to triage in order to free up funds for rebalancing stronger positions. In all the simulations, my account recovered and became stronger.

    So now, when the actual situation came up in 2008, I was able to act without hesitation.
  • That is actually pretty interesting. Obviously many hedge funds didn't use that practice.
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